Thoughts and Predictions King George VI Chase, 2019

Christmas is coming, I am getting fat.

Please put a tenner in William Hill’s hat.

If you haven’t got a tenner, a fiver will do.

And if you haven’t got a fiver then I think I quid each way,

judiciously invested at 9/2 with Ladbrokes on Clan des Obeaux,

represents reasonable value for the King George.

Thank God, for in his mercy, he gave us the King George so that we could escape from the merciless clutches of a family Christmas. Sadly, I will not be going to Kempton this year. I’m marooned in Yorkshire, and with any luck will be so drunk come Boxing Day that I’ll start cheering for Steve Ovett once the racing comes on the telly.

Skipping lightly over any unresolved family issues I may have, this year’s King George is possibly the most exciting contest we’ve had for a while. Cyrname, the highest rated chaser in training, will be taking on last year’s winner Clan des Obeaux. With any luck, we will see Thistlecrack, winner in 2017. It is apparently unlikely that Altior will run after come up empty during training this week, but if the ground comes up soft, we will see Native River, the 2018 Gold Cup winner.

It is this last potential entry which I’ve taken as confirmation of the basic soundness of my thinking about the King George. My base case is that the race rewards the fastest 3 mile chaser in training. Kempton is a flat, galloping track, and unlike Cheltenham, rarely turns into stamina-sapping glue underfoot. This gives an advantage to two milers trying to get three for the first time, and short runners at three milers more generally. Clearly the great Colin Tizzard thinks like me (or more modestly, I think like him). Native River, our heroic iron horse, is a sure-footed jumper and an inexhaustible stayer. A real hard man, the kind of horse that would go 15 rounds with Sonny Liston and still have stamina for more. And Mr Tizzard has said that he will only run if it is soft, which by implication means only if the acceleration of younger rivals is blunted by the ground. Kempton for brilliance, Cheltenham for stamina. It is not a perfectly fair comparison – after all the Gold Cup is an extra 2.5 furlongs up a hill, which puts a premium on guts and stamina.

From the statistics, youth is highly correlated with victory. The average age of the King George winner has been 7.79, which is on the young side. The statistic would look even more youthful if we account for multiple winners like Desert Orchid and Kauto Star: Dessie first won at 7 and Kauto Star at 6, but both won their last aged 11. Wayward Lad first won at 7 and finally at 10.

Taking all this into account, the plausible candidates narrow somewhat. Cyrname put up a brilliant performance at Ascot, seeing off Altior in a old-fashioned slugfest. Aged 7, he is in the form of his life. In such a quick race, accurate jumping is key, and from what we’ve seen this season, Cyrname can jump wonderfully at speed. Ascot was wonderful to watch, Cyrname just stood off his fences and soared over them, with a smooth action and lovely measured stride. A slight upset at the fourth fence only underlined his class – he took off about half a mile away, and dropped his back legs into the fence. The fact he cleared it after such a misjudgement underlined the quality of his overall jumping. The King George rewards class, and Cyrname has got it in spades. Incidentally, I don’t think Altior failed to stay – whilst he couldn’t live with Cyrname coming off the bend, the gap wasn’t increasing near the line. Nor did he obviously blow up. It would be lovely if we had found the new dominant 3 mile chaser, and two weeks before Christmas, he looks like the real deal. It doesn’t hurt that he is trained by Paul Nicholls – if anyone knows how to win on Boxing Day, it is the trainer of Kauto Star. At 7/4 and 15/8, there might not be a huge amount of value on offer, but it shows which way the wind is blowing.

The other major contender is Lostintranslation. The Betfair Chase winner produced an almost perfect display at Haydock until he clouted the last two fences, and convincingly beat the talented Bristol De Mai. Held up by Robbie Power, the 7 year old surged through late to win well, in a race which Bristol De Mai had won the two most recent renewals. If he can see off a multiple Grade 1 winner in his home race, the sky is the limit. His talent is reflected in the price. 2/1 and 15/8 across the board are a good marker that, on paper, it is almost impossible to split Cyrname and Lostintranslation.

Clan Des Obeaux, last year’s winner, is harder to endorse. He made no impression when beaten by 4 lengths by Road to Respect at Down Royal last month, and hasn’t been seen since. Still only 7, he should have a long career ahead of him, but unless something has changed during December, doesn’t look likely to beat his stablemate Cyrname. However, Paul Nicholls was bullish after his loss, and is deliberately keeping him fresh for an assault on Kempton. My recommendation would be to pile in each way. With 4/1 and 9/2 on offer, a place should cover the original stake. Better horses than Clan des Obeaux have lost in their early season runs, and comeback to win a King George: Desert Orchid in 1989 and 1990 being the prime example.

Past winner Thistlecrack is nowhere near his best. His performance in the same race in 2016 was thrilling, a dominant display of jumping and speed. Injury has subsequently taken the edge off him, but at 16/1 across the board and 20/1 with Betfred, he definitely qualifies as an excellent each way shout. Such long prices seem unfair to such a game horse, and even though well below par he still came fourth in 2017 and second in 2018. However, he is still in the Long Walk Hurdle, and will be very unlikely to run at Kempton if he runs there. The Tizzard team intend to leave it until the last minute, so I wouldn’t lay a penny down until we get clarity.

If I had to pick a winner, Cyrname would get the nod, purely because his jumping at Ascot was much better than Lostintranslation’s at Haydock. If he shows the same rhythm and class as he did last month, he will be very hard to beat. For those who can’t watch a race without a punt, my tip is Clan des Obeaux each way, although barring disaster I don’t expect him to win.